Agriculture Reference
In-Depth Information
than 15 days. The decreases in the number of rainy days over major parts
of the country are also being observed in this study (IMD NCC 3/2010).
Simulations of future weather hardening were carried out using PRE-
CIS model for three QUMP (Quantifying Uncertainties in Model Projec-
tions) for A1B scenario for the period 1961-1990 (baseline simulation)
and for three time slices, 2020s (2011-2040), 2050s (2041-2070) and
2080s (2071-2098). Three PRECIS runs: Q0, Q1 and Q14 were carried
out for the period 1961-2098 and were used to generate an ensemble of
future climate change scenarios for the Indian region. It appears that there
may not be significant decrease in the monsoon rainfall in the future ex-
cept in some parts of the southern peninsula. Q0, Q1 and Q14 simulations
project 16%, 15% and 9% rise, respectively, in the monsoon rainfall to-
wards the end of the twenty-first century.
PRECIS simulations for 2020s, 2050s and 2080s indicate an all-round
warming over the Indian subcontinent. Data indicates that Q14 simula-
tions are warmer than the remaining two simulations. The annual mean
surface air temperature rise by the end of the century ranges from 3.5°C to
4.3°C (NATCOM, 2012).
KEYWORDS
•
Climate Change
•
Climatic Extremes
•
Heat Wave and Cold Wave
•
Precipitation
•
Temperature
REFERENCES
Attri, S. D., & Tgagi, A. (2010). “Climate Profile of India,” IMD Met Monograph No. Environ-
ment Meteorology, 1/2010.
NATCOM, (2012). India's Second National Communication to the United Nations Frame Work
Convention on Climate change, Ministry of Environment and Forests, New Delhi.
Pai, D. S., Thapliyal, V., & Kokate, P. D. (2004). “Decadal Variation in the Heat and Cold Waves
over India during 1971-2000,” Mausam, 55, 2, 281-292.
