Agriculture Reference
In-Depth Information
2.2.5.2 DROUGHT
The results of mapping study (IMD 2010) of droughts are summarized as
under:
1. In the North-west region of India, the probability of moderate
drought varies from 12 to 30% and probability of severe droughts
varies from 1 to 20% in most of the parts and about 20-30% in the
extreme north-western parts.
2. In West Central India, the probability of moderate drought varies
from 5 to 26% and that of severe drought varies from 1 to 8%.
3. In the Peninsular region, the probability of moderate drought varies
from 3 to 27%, and that of severe drought varies from 1 to 9% in
major parts.
4. In the Central North-east region, the probability of moderate
drought varies from 6 to 37% and that of severe drought varies
from 1 to 10%.
5. In the North-east region, the probability of moderate drought varies
from 1 to 26% and that of severe drought varies from 1 to 3%.
6. In the hilly region, the probability of moderate drought varies from
9 to 31% and that of severe drought varies from 1 to 12% except in
Leh and Lahul & Spiti.
In general, it can be concluded that in most parts of India, probabilities
of moderate drought are in the range 11 to 20%. Major parts of India show
probabilities of severe drought in the range 1 to 5%. In some West Central,
Central North-east and North-east regions of India, no severe drought is
experienced.
2.3
PROJECTED TREND IN CLIMATE EXTREMES
The projections indicate that above 25°N latitude, the maximum tempera-
ture may rise by 2-4°C during the 2050s and in the northern region the
increase in maximum temperature may exceed 4°C. The minimum tem-
perature in the 2050s is expected to rise by 4°C all over India, with a
further rise in temperature in the southern peninsula. At an all-India level,
little change in monsoon rainfall is projected up to the 2050s. There is
an overall decrease in the number of rainy days over a major part of the
country. This decrease is greater in the western and central parts by more
 
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