Environmental Engineering Reference
In-Depth Information
Persistence
Prediktor
0.5
0.5
0.4
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.1
0
0
0
6
12
18
24
30
36
42
48
0
6
12
18
24
30
36
42
48
Look-ahead time (h)
Look-ahead time (h)
nw
all
Figure 6.17
Effect of aggregation of wind farm output on forecast error for the
persistence and Prediktor models
0.20
0.20
0.15
Single wind farm
6-h look-ahead time
0.15
Single wind farm
12-h look-ahead time
0.10
0.10
0.05
0.05
0.00
0.00
0.20
0.20
0.15
0.15
nw wind farms
6-h look-ahead time
nw wind farms
12-h look-ahead time
0.10
0.10
0.05
0.05
0.00
0.00
0.20
0.20
0.15
0.15
All wind farms
6-h look-ahead time
All wind farms
12-h look-ahead time
0.10
0.10
0.05
0.05
0.00
0.00
-1
-0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
-1
-0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
Normalised power forecast error (pu)
Normalised power forecast error (pu)
Figure 6.18
Distribution of errors
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