Wind power forecasting - Wind Power Integration: Connection and System Operational Aspects - page 234

6.5.1 Prediktor
Prediktor, one of the earliest wind power forecasting systems, was developed by
Landberg at Risø National Laboratory in Denmark (Landberg, 1994; Landberg
et al. , 1997). Prediktor was applied to 15 wind farms connected to the Electricity
Supply Board (ESB) system in Ireland from February 2001 through to June 2002. A
description of the application of Prediktor in Ireland can be found in Watson and
Landberg (2003). A brief description of Prediktor together with key results from its
application in Ireland are presented below to illustrate some important features of
typical wind power forecasting systems.
The Prediktor methodology, outlined in Figure 6.14, is predominantly a phy-
sical modelling one. The large-scale flow is modelled by an NWP model, in this
case a version of HIRLAM run by Met ´ ireann (the Irish national meteorological
service). The version of HIRLAM used had a horizontal resolution of 33 km with
24 vertical levels. HIRLAM was run at 0, 6, 12 and 18 UTC (co-ordinated universal
time) each day, taking about 1.5 hours to complete its run after a 2-hour wait for the
global meteorological data from the GTS. Results were emailed to Prediktor less

HIRLAM wind forecast

Geostrophic
drag law log
wind profile

Coriolis and
roughness

Surface wind

Orography

Local wind

Roughness WAsP

Obstacles

Wind farm layout

PARK

Power curve

MOS

Power forecast

Figure 6.14 Flowchart of Prediktor methodology