Ethics, Scientists, Engineers and the Military - Ethical Engineering for International Development and Environmental Sustainability - page 323

3 Preparation for War and Different Uses of Military Force

It is useful to consider the issues relating to preparation for war and the use of
military force in terms of the three-component model of the causes of violent con-
fl ict (Hersh 2013 ), with the following three components:

1. Issue: This includes both issue(s) of dispute and concerns of different types that
could lead to disputes or serve as a pretext for the use of force.
2. Context: A context which favours instability, discourages dialogue and the
peaceful settlement of issues of concern and encourages moves towards violent
'solutions' and the use of force to achieve objectives.
3. Trigger: A trigger event or circumstance, such as the approach of a signifi cant
anniversary or the assassination of an important personage, which results in the
actual outbreak of violent confl ict or declaration of war.

The fl ow structure of the diagram (Fig. 11.1 ) indicates the stages that can lead to
confl ict. There is increasing instability and likelihood of confl ict moving down the
left-hand side of the diagram, as the number of factors related to confl ict increases.
Similarly moving up the diagram on the right-hand side leads to a reduction in the
likelihood of confl ict. Moving across the diagram to the right shows a reduction in
instability as particular factor related to confl ict is not present. However, the lack of
trigger events in the presence of issues of dispute and a context favouring violent
confl ict may just lead to the postponement of confl ict rather than its resolution.

Fig. 11.1 A three-part model of the processes leading to violent confl ict and war