Energy - Wind Energy: Renewable Energy and the Environment - page 23

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1900 1950 2000 2050 2100

FIGURE 2.7 World oil production per year and production prediction (peak in 2010) using bell curve.

analysis. Notice the difference between predictions made in 1992 and the actual oil and natural
gas production in Texas since that date. The predictions were based on existing and advanced
technology for oil at $20-25/bbl and the state comptroller based its prediction on the continu-
ation of past production (bell curve). The prediction for natural gas was based on $3/(thousand
cubic feet). Oil production in Texas followed the low prediction curve, while natural gas produc-
tion leveled off, primarily due to more drilling and also advanced technology. Many more wells
were drilled for natural gas than for oil from 1990 through 2007. Even though Texas is the major
producer in the United States for oil and natural gas, in the years 1994-1995 Texas became a net
importer of energy.
World oil production [8] will follow the same pattern as oil production in the United States.
Notice that the bell curve predicts world oil production (Figure 2.7) will peak around 2010. There
are a number of websites on peak oil. The oil poster ( www.oilposter.org ) is very well done, and it
also shows the world oil peak at 2010. Future production is stretched out because it includes heavy
oil, deep-water oil, polar oil, and natural gas liquids, all of which will be more expensive. The reac-
tion to the oil crises of 1973 and 1980 was increased efficiency, which shows as a dip in production.
However, as developing countries demand more energy, the demand and production will in general
be approximated by the bell curve. In the past the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)
predicted cheap energy ($20/bbl) for 2030, and even in 2006 they were predicting future oil at $45/
bbl for 2030 for the reference case. Their long-term predictions (even the high case) are probably
low, as prices in 2008 were already above $100/bbl. For EIA predictions, check the forecast and
analysis section, www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/forecasting.html .

2.6.2 C OAL
Each fossil fuel industry touts the use of its product. The World Coal Institute is promoting the
sustainable development of coal and conversion of coal to liquid fuels. In 2004 coal provided 26%
of the primary energy for the world and 43% of global electricity. Production of coal has increased
by 47% in the last 25 years, with production of 114 quads in 2004. In China 80% of the electricity is
provided by coal, and coal also provides a major portion of heating and cooking.