Energy - Wind Energy: Renewable Energy and the Environment - page 22

Actual Exist tech ADV tech State comp

1,400

1,200

1,000

800

600

400

200

0

1930 1950 1970 1990 2010

FIGURE 2.5 Texas crude oil production and predictions for the future. (Production data obtained from Texas
Railroad Commission.)

Even if a larger resource base is assumed, with exponential growth the larger resource is used
up at about the same time. Also, as the resource is used, it becomes more difficult to obtain the
resource, i.e., it takes more energy, which also means more money, to obtain the resource. The
amount of oil and natural gas discovered per foot of hole drilled decreases exponentially. The same
type of analysis and predictions can be made for natural gas, coal, and nuclear ore.
The bell curve, also called the normal or Gaussian curve, will not be exact for predicting
future production, as advanced technology will allow us to recover more of the fossil fuels and
extend the time the resource is available. However, the end result is still the same. The actual
production for oil (Figure 2.5) and natural gas (Figure 2.6) in Texas [7] corroborates the above

Actual Exist tech ADV tech State comp

10

9

8

7

6

5

4

3

2

1

0

1930 1950 1970 1990 2010

FIGURE 2.6 Texas natural gas production and predictions for the future. (Production data obtained from
Texas Railroad Commission.)