Dealing with global climate change - Ecological Applications: Toward a Sustainable World - page 303

recognize that the effects of rising temperature may be predicted using knowledge of consequences
for population birth and death rates
understand that the ecological effects of climate change may be positive or negative from a human
perspective
realize that food-web interactions can be crucial when predicting risks from global climate change
- from human diseases and pests to endangered species
appreciate that nature reserves may turn out to be in the wrong places

11.1 Introduction Legend tells of an ancient island civilization called 'At l antis'. When the once-

virtuous inhabitants became corrupted by greed and power, the gods punished
them - their island was engulfed and lost forever in a single violent surge of the
Atlantic Ocean.
Perhaps we should now speak of 'Pacifi s', because rising sea level seems set to
swallow up many low-lying islands in the Pacifi c Ocean. First to go will be the
Carterets, six tiny horseshoe-shaped coral atolls with a population of 980. Next will
be the turn of Kiribati and the Marshall Islands. Valerie is an anthropologist who
has paid several visits to the Carterets. ' I imagined I would fi nd the tropical paradise
of popular imagination - a life of ease amid coconut palms. But the reality was harsh.
People were often close to starvation because salt-water intrusions were killing the trees
and ruining breadfruit crops. Some families left voluntarily back in the 1980s but they
became caught up in political violence and returned to the islands - despite the hardship
they knew they would have to endure. Now the islanders are preparing to leave for good. '
The inhabitants of the Carteret Islands may go down in history as the fi rst to be
offi cially evacuated as a result of global warming. The Papua New Guinea govern-
ment has resolved that as soon as it can muster international fi nancial support, 10
families at a time will be moved to Bougainville, a larger island 100 km away. By
2015 the Carterets are expected to be completely submerged.
For years, scientists and politicians have debated whether human activities, most
notably the burning of fossil fuels and the consequent increase in atmospheric
carbon dioxide, are responsible for observed climate change. But now even most
politicians agree that we have been responsible for a global increase in temperature
that has seen glaciers and icecaps melt and sea levels rise. Valerie notes the irony.
' It is the developed nations of the world who are responsible for climate change - but
impoverished pacifi c islanders will be fi rst to pay. In contrast to the Atlantis myth, in my
view the reality is that a simple and virtuous people is being punished for the greed of
an entirely different civilization on the other side of the world. '
A huge multidisciplinary effort is now focused on what the world's climate holds
in store (IPCC, 2007). Climate scientists have developed models that predict the
magnitudes of future change in temperature and precipitation. Their work is then
used by hydrologists to forecast patterns of fl ooding and runoff from land to rivers,
and by ocean scientists to develop models to predict changes in sea level and ocean
currents. Despite considerable uncertainty at every step in this modeling process,
all results point to some dramatic changes. And changes, moreover, that would still
occur through the twenty-fi rst century even if by some magic we could immediately
eliminate further human inputs to the atmosphere. This is partly because carbon
dioxide in the atmosphere has a residence time of decades, but also because of
thermal inertia - the idea that climate change is delayed because ocean water takes
longer to heat up than air.