Environmental Engineering Reference
In-Depth Information
11
Dealing with global climate change
Human activities have been pouring greenhouse gases into the atmosphere and there is ever increasing evidence
of global changes to temperature and precipitation - a huge multidisciplinary effort is now focused on what the
world's climate holds in store for the future. Ecological managers need to consider the consequences of shifting
habitable areas for species distributions, the location of reserves, and sustainable harvest and pest control.
Chapter contents
11.1 Introduction
291
11.2 Climate change predictions based on the ecology of individual organisms
297
11.2.1 Niche theor y and conservation - what a shame mountains are conical
297
11.2.2 Niche theory and invasion risk - nuisance on the move
298
11.2.3 Life-histor y traits and the fate of species - for better or for worse
300
11.3 Climate change predictions based on the theory of population dynamics
303
11.3.1 Species conservation - the bear essentials
303
11.3.2 Pest control - more or less of a problem?
303
11.3.3 Harvesting fi sh in future - cod willing
304
11.3.4 Forestr y - a boost for developing countries?
305
11.4 Climate change predictions based on community and ecosystem interactions
306
11.4.1 Succession - new trajectories and end points
306
11.4.2 Food-web interactions - Dengue downunder
307
11.4.3 Ecosystem ser vices - you win some, you lose some
307
11.5 A landscape perspective - nature reserves under climate change
308
11.5.1 Mexican cacti - reserves in the wrong place
309
11.5.2 Fair y shrimps - a temporary setback
310
Key concepts
In this chapter you will
recognize that no model of global climate is perfect - thus the importance of checking predictions
for a range of possible circumstances
understand that the ecologists' role is to take the physical predictions of climate modelers (tem-
perature, precipitation, extreme climate events, ocean currents, etc.) and envision the conse-
quences for species and ecosystems
grasp the importance of niche theory and life-history traits when predicting future distributions of
endangered, invading, harvested and pest species
see that the consequences of changes to habitable area are all the more severe if species cannot
disperse from their current range
290
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