Conclusions and the future of climate research - The Global Climate System: Patterns, Processes, and Teleconnections - page 324

atmospheres. Better estimates of future emissions will support more representa-
tive depictions of the impacts on climate.
A key objective of the IGAC program is to provide more accurate determina-
tions of how the chemical process works in the atmosphere, and the resultant
impacts on climate patterns. Improved knowledge of the global distribution of
both short- and long-lived chemical species, and how these change over time
will provide valuable support. On a more regional scale, GURME and TRUCE
addresss interactions between the urban environment and the atmosphere, and
incorporate resultant impacts on the community. Integration of atmospheric
chemistry with other atmospheric processes, and the complexities associated
with feedbacks and surface coupling will lead to an increased holistic under-
standing of the climate system.
10.2.6 Quantifying climate change uncertainties
Accurate determinations of climate change and variability, and projections for
the future, require appropriate quantification of uncertainties. Figure 10.1 estab-
lishes that much work is needed before this task can be accomplished.
Quantification can improve through better measurements over longer periods
of time, and through more improved modeling of the current and future climate
system (see Section 10.2.7 ). One of the major goals of the WCRP and the WMO
is to improve the temporal and spatial coverage of the measurement network
around the globe. While advances in satellite technology and data have increased
exponentially over the past three decades, the near-surface measurement net-
work has been in decline. The network must produce spatially compatible data,
with climate and its variability a major purpose, and be supported by adequate
computational resources. Problems such as political differences, inaccurate use
of instruments, inaccurate data collection and analysis, and clashing demands
for financial support must be overcome.
A network on its own has limited value if there is no integrated strategy to
share and assess that data. Consistent statistical methods which accurately define
variations that are acceptable to the international scientific community are
needed. Uncertainties in the data must be defined and reduced. Network infor-
mation can provide the basis for sensitivity studies, to define the impacts of a
range of forcing variables, and to establish the levels of climate system perturba-
tions and teleconnections. More accurate and more complete data are also
needed to support modeling.
10.2.7 Improving climate modeling
Chapter 9 establishes the importance of global general circulation models
(GCMs) and nested regional models to enhancing knowledge about the climate