Conclusions and the future of climate research - The Global Climate System: Patterns, Processes, and Teleconnections - page 323

sets are lacking, and early data are basically meteorological, and very patchy.
More recent data from automatic weather stations, supplemented by satellite
information, and models (NCEP/NCAR reanalysis for example, Chapter 4 ),
have created a more geographically representative set of data in both the
Arctic and the Antarctic. However, more long-term data are needed to obtain
a true picture of polar climates and how they change over time.
The second is to increase understanding of the ice/ocean/land/atmosphere
relationships and the feedback processes and how they change over time.
Examples of questions include: if the Arctic ice pack melts, how will the
radiation and energy budgets be affected? What will happen to the AO and the
general circulation? How will teleconnections between the polar regions and
lower latitudes be changed? What effects do surface contrasts and changes to
them have on the regional and local climate? If in the Antarctic, warming brings
increases in precipitation and an expanded volume of ice, what will happen to the
circumpolar trough? How will the mid-latitude circulation structure be changed?
What will be the impact on cyclogenesis and the strength and geographic
distribution of extra-tropical lows?
The third CliC goal is to elevate the accuracy of climate simulations and
predictions by providing a more accurate or representative picture of cryospheric
processes in models. Currently, various models show a wide range of polar
sensitivities to the climate. Better depiction of the current influences by the
equatorial-polar temperature gradient, the AO and AAO, and the surface-
atmospheric interactions are essential, if we are to be able to properly estimate
climate change.
Projects such as the Arctic Climate System Study (ACSYS) are focused on
providing progress toward the CliC goals. Under ACSYS, a series of research
activities is planned that will evaluate the sensitivity of the Arctic ice cover to
climate change, through improved measurement and modeling. More detailed
assessment of the components of the hydrological cycle, especially river runoff
and precipitation will be completed. The potential impacts of climate change on
the great global ocean conveyor belt circulation, currently subject to much
theory and speculation, will be evaluated.
10.2.5 Air pollutants and climate change
Basic atmospheric chemistry, and the forcing impacts of air pollution from
human activities, are listed in Figure 10.1 as having a medium to very low
level of scientific understanding. Chapters 5 and 7 establish the importance of
pollutants in atmospheric chemical processes, associated with various scales of
atmospheric transport. On a global scale, greenhouse gases and fine particulates
play complex and potentially opposite roles on global warming. On a regional
scale, pollutants such as ozone, carbon monoxide, and particulate matter
strongly influence the quality and chemistry of urban and downwind