The Volatility and Growth Trend of Field Production Mechanization Level in China - A Positive Analysis Based on Hodrick-Prescott Method - Efficient Decision Support Systems: Practice and Challenges from Current to Future - page 391

Short-term volatility, described by mutation rate RV and its computation formula is:

/ CT

RV  Y Y (3)

t t

where RV reflects the deviation amplitude of economic variables to long-term trend in a
specific time.
In order to analyze the China field production mechanization level volatility and growth
trend between 1973 and 2008, it is necessary to get the data of mechanical sowing and
mechanical harvesting. Here, data from 1973 to 1999 is from website of China Agricultural
Mechanization Information Network (which is managed by Agricultural Mechanization
Management of China's Ministry of Agriculture). Data between 2000 and 2008 is from China
Agricultural Yearbook. Mechanical sowing and mechanical harvesting calculating methods
are as follows:

Mechanical Sowing Area

(4)

Mechanical Sowing Level (%) 

The Actural Total Sown Area

Mechanical Harvesting Area

(5) Mechanical Harvesting Level (%) 

The Actural Total Sown Area

40.00

M echanical Sawing Level
M echanical Harvest ing Level

35.00

30.00

25.00

20.00

15.00

10.00

5.00

0.00

Fig. 1. The development of mechanical sowing and mechanical harvesting from 1973 to 2008
in China

2.2 The volatility analysis of mechanical sowing and mechanical harvesting
To investigate the fluctuating features of the mechanical sowing level and mechanical
harvesting level, the long-term trends and short-term volatilities of the mechanical sowing
level and mechanical harvesting level should be separated by HP filter. Therefore, this paper
uses the software of Eviews6.0 to calculate both of the filtering results.
Table 1 shows the HP trend value of the mechanical sowing level and mechanical harvesting
level in China from 1973 to 2008, which is the trend components of mechanical sowing level