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and mechanical harvesting level, reflecting the endogenous, stable aspects that could be
used in economic forecasting.
Fig 2 and Fig 3 show the smooth trend of the long-trend volatility of mechanical sowing
level and mechanical harvesting level. From tendency sequence we know that the
mechanical sowing level and mechanical harvesting level are overall on the rise from 1973 to
2008. Among them, the average annual growth of the mechanical sowing level is 0.96%
while the mechanical harvesting level is 0.85%. Those figures show that the feature of
volatility of the mechanical sowing level and mechanical harvesting level are obvious.
Using formula (3), we could compute the mutation rate of the mechanical sowing level and
mechanical harvesting level in China from 1973 to 2008. According to periodic wave theory
and the feature of "peak - valley - peak" , when the difference of wave amplitude of a cycle
is bigger than 5% and the interval time is more than 3 years, we regard this cycle as an
integrated cycle. It should be noted that according to different standards to define an
integrated cycle the results will vary. According to this, we get the cycle of the mechanical
sowing level and mechanical harvesting level in China from 1973 to 2008 and the results are
shown in table 3 and table 4.
Judging from the mechanical sowing level, there were six fluctuation cycles from 1973 to
2008 and the average interval time is 6 years while the longest one is 10 years and the
shortest one is 4 years. The interval time is growing from short to long. The average
amplitude is 10.44% while the largest one is 17.87% and the smallest one is 5.55%. The
amplitude is becoming smaller and this means that the stability of fluctuation of mechanical
sowing level is becoming strengthened.
Judging from mechanical harvesting level, there were five fluctuation cycles from 1973 to
2008 and the average interval time is 7.2 years while the longest one is 8 years. Except the
period from 1989 to 1992, the interval time of the other cycles is 8 years and the fluctuation
frequency is stable. The average amplitude is 13.228% while the largest one is 22.90%. The
amplitude is becoming smaller and this means that the stability of fluctuation of mechanical
harvesting level is also becoming strengthened.
Harvesting
level
1973 3.45 1.29 1985 9.35 3.57 1997 22.82 13.76
1974 4.51 1.42 1986 9.85 3.96 1998 23.92 14.94
1975 5.61 1.56 1987 10.70 4.52 1999 24.82 16.04
1976 6.74 1.74 1988 11.80 5.23 2000 25.51 17.00
1977 7.82 1.96 1989 13.09 6.03 2001 26.10 17.80
1978 8.78 2.21 1990 14.48 6.91 2002 26.77 18.63
1979 9.49 2.47 1991 15.85 7.81 2003 27.66 19.69
1980 9.80 2.70 1992 17.10 8.72 2004 28.91 21.16
1981 9.73 2.87 1993 18.23 9.61 2005 30.49 23.09
1982 9.48 3.01 1994 19.32 10.52 2006 32.36 25.43
1983 9.22 3.15 1995 20.45 11.49 2007 34.46 28.02
1984 9.14 3.31 1996 21.63 12.58 2008 36.68 30.69
Table 1. Trend value of agricultural mechanization operation level from 1973 to 2008 in
China (%)
Sowing
level
Harvesting
level
Sowing
level
Harvesting
level
Sowing
level
Years
Years
Years
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