Determination of Effective Policies for Ecological Agriculture Development with System Dynamics and Agent Based Models – Case Study in Slovenia - Efficient Decision Support Systems: Practice and Challenges from Current to Future - page 369

5. Conclusion
In this paper an attempt was made to employ system dynamics model in order to simulate
the development of organic agriculture. The presented SD model enables simulation of
different policies and this kind of model is comprehensible to a wide range of users in the
decision making process.
After performing several simulation scenarios the following findings could be abstracted:
 Conversion to the organic farming relies on subsidies which provide the main source of
conversion from conventional farming to organic farming.
 Subsidies are not the only driving force in the system; even more important are other
activities that promote organic farming.
 Subsidies could not be provided in sufficient amount in order to complete conversion
from the conventional to organic farming.
 Feasible strategy to achieve complete conversion should consider reinforcing feedback
loop between resources, number of organic farms and supportive actions which are
bounded to the number of organic farms.
 Current output parameter i.e. number of organic farms, is caught in an unwanted
equilibrium value due to the domination of balancing feedback loops in the system.
 Important factor is self-organization of the organic farming environment which
includes market development and general public awareness.
 Due to the large systemic delays in the system the anticipative value of the system
control plays an important part.
 Important factor that influences the transitions to the organic farming is demand on the
market which is largely driven by the politics and the self-supply principle.
 The agent based model shows that it is possible to build an agent-based model which
would enable to monitor each particular farm and its transition. The tool AnyLogic has
been identified as the proper tool for such modeling task.
Further strategic actions should consider the dynamic response of the system and the
feasibility of stated system target values. Consideration of the interaction of four main
feedback loops indicated in the system which determines the system performance provides
the means for proper control strategy definition.
The presented combined methodological framework (SD) for the analysis of development of
organic farming could provide additional information support to agricultural policy makers,
bring additional clarity to the decision, and could therefore play an important role in further
development of organic farming, in particular as assistance and advisory in policy planning.
Further research is needed in the field of SD modeling in order to properly evaluate the
applicability of the proposed model. Especially the market development of organic food
should be additionally considered as proposed by Rozman et al., (2008). The SD model
should be further verified and correspondingly improved. The agent-based model should be
developed which would enable precise monitoring of each particular farm. The model
structure and its results should be evaluated by relevant expert group.
6. References
Akinwumi, A.A; Mbila, D.; Nkamleub, G.B. & Endamana, D. (2000). Econometric analysis of
the determinants of adoption of alley farming by farmers in the forest zone of
southwest Cameroon Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment , Vol. 80, pp. 255-265