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etc., which would contribute to better demand. This value is set to 0.8 initially which means,
that each new organic farm rises the resources (not only financial) for 0.8 additional organic
farm by adding, e.g. to the better development of the organic marketing and prodution. The
delay represents the number of months in order to spread the effect of the additional
support resources in the system. Initially we consider, that this delay is short, in our case 1
month. “1” marks the response of first scenario, SC1. Self-supply coefficient represent the
proportion to which the country should be self content regarding the food supply. This
factor determines the food demand. 1.3 would mean, that the desired food production
shoud be 30% higher of normal production. The coefficient of self-supply determines the
demand which also depend on the Whole production of the agriculutral sector. Here it is
important, that in the case of higher prices, the food production capacity would play a key
role and influence the possible negative transitions (back to conventional farming).
Population is considered as 2 million which determines the food demand. If one compares it
to the scenario “2” where the subsidies are rised to 3000 the more intensive transitions are
observed. However, the observed number of organic farms is far from desired meaning, that
the subsidies by themselves would probabbly not be enough. In the scenario SC3, the impact
of decreasing self-supply coefficient is considered as well as decrease in subsidies. If one
decreases Self-supply coefficient, the demand/supply delay ratio would be better,
influencing on the better demend for organic farming products. This would in turn
compensate the lower Subsidies and provide the highest conversion so far. In scenario SC4
the subsidies are rised to 2000 which gives the best results regarding the response of the
system and the limit value of the organic farms, which is approximately 17,000. This would
mean, that the right political choice would be, to increase demand for the organic farming
products by lowering the self-supply and provide larger amount of subsidies. However, this
could be risky in the condition of higher food prices. SC5 considers higher delay at the
establishement of the self-supporting resources, which is set to 36 months. This is more
realistic since the establishment of self-supporting resources takes some time. The
consequence is, that the rise in the number of farms is much slower. This would mean, that
it is very important, to quickly establish self-support resources for organic farming if we
want to achieve fast transitions. SC6 shows the impact of lowering the delay in establishing
self-support resources. Here the delay is put to the 12 months giving much better response
and achieving the limit value of the organic farms, which is approximately 17,000. SC7
shows the impact of larger food demand in the case that the population would increase. This
would have for the consequence larger food demand and rise in prices. It such situation, the
transition would be slower and less farmers would choose to switch to the organic farming
due to higher food prices. SC8 shows even worse situation if the population would have an
additional increase meaning, that the demand for food would be even higher. In that case,
the transition to organic farming would be even slower. One of the important questions is
»How could the subsidies be replaced?« As the model shows, the main leverage is the
organic farming promotion and market development. In this manner, the self-supporting
resources are established which further promote the transition to the organic farming. This
is the counterpart of direct subsidies which should be converted to the actions that support
self organization component in the system. The presented combined methodological
framework (SD) for the analysis of development of organic farming could provide
additional information support to agricultural policy makers, bring additional clarity to the
decision, and could therefore play an important role in further development of organic
farming, in particular as assistance and advisory in policy planning.
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