Decision Support Systems in Agriculture: Some Successes and a Bright Future - Efficient Decision Support Systems: Practice and Challenges from Current to Future - page 321

Example Bayesian calculations of cumulative probability

Initial P deficiency = 0.5 Odds (deficiency):1

Odds Cum.Prob

(P
deficiency)

Factor Value P(def) L(def) (def)

Agric. Region Mali 0.6 1.50 1.50 0.60

Soil Order none 0.5 1.00 1.50 0.60

Prev. Crop none 0.5 1.00 1.50 0.60

Indicator Plant Striga 0.7 2.33 3.50 0.78

Def. Symp. Purple 0.7 2.33 8.17 0.89

Plant Anal. 0.3 0.2 0.25 2.04 0.67

Soil Anal. < 0.5 0.7 2.33 4.76 0.83

Total Cum Probability: 0.83

9. Appendix. 3
Visual ACN