Measuring Performance of Long-Term Power Generating Portfolios - Green Energy and Efficiency: An Economic Perspective - page 400

Gone Green

60

50

40

2012
2017
2022
2027
2032

30

20

10

0

Coal Natl. gas Nuclear Wind Hydro Pmp. Sto.

Power technology

Fig. 2 Generation mix 2012 2032 under Gone Green future energy scenario [ 29 ]

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Gone Green (henceforth GG). This is the main analysis case for the ETYS.
It assumes a balanced approach with different generation sectors contributing to
meet the environmental targets. Gone Green sees the renewable target for 2020 and
the emissions targets for 2020, 2030 and 2050 all met.
As Fig. 2 shows, coal capacity decreases dramatically over the period with a
U-turn as new carbon capture and storage (CCS) capacity comes on line from 2025
onwards. This is due to the EU Large Combustion Plants Directive (LCPD) and
Industrial Emissions Directive (IED). Gas/CHP generation capacity increases
overall over the full period (6.3 GW). Nuclear capacity increases by a total of
approximately 5 GW over the period. Wind starts from some 5 GW of capacity in
2012 but reaches 25 GW by 2020 and 49 GW by 2032. Hydro (including biomass
and marine) increases from almost 2 GW currently to some 5 GW over the full
period to 2032. Instead, generation capacity of pumped storage is cut in 50 % over
the period.
Slow Progression (SP). Developments in renewable and low carbon energy are
relatively slow in comparison to Gone Green and Accelerated Growth, and the
renewable energy target for 2020 is not met until sometime between 2020 and 2025.
The carbon reduction target for 2020 is achieved but not the indicative target for
2030.
This scenario places less emphasis on renewable generation. As Fig. 3 shows,
coal capacity declines consistently to some 4 GW by 2032. Instead, gas capacity
increases even more than before (10 GW more by the end of the period). Nuclear
capacity remains fairly static. Growth in wind capacity is considerably slower in
this scenario in comparison to Gone Green (capacity increases ve-fold, not nearly

ten-fold as before). Other renewables excluding wind remain fairly static. Pumped
storage evolves basically as before.
Accelerated Growth (AG). This scenario has more low carbon generation,
including renewables, nuclear and CCS, coupled with greater energy ef ciency

measures and electri cation of heat and transport. Renewable and carbon reduction

targets are all met ahead of schedule.