Measuring Performance of Long-Term Power Generating Portfolios - Green Energy and Efficiency: An Economic Perspective - page 401

Slow Progression

60

50

40

2012
2017
2022
2027
2032

30

20

10

0

Coal Natl. gas Nuclear Wind Hydro Pmp. Sto.

Power technology

Fig. 3 Generation mix 2012 2032 under Slow Progression future energy scenario [ 29 ]

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This scenario shows a much steeper increase in the level of renewable generation
capacity than the others, as Fig. 4 shows. Coal capacity shows a net decrease over
the period to 2032 of approximately 12 GW, with a slight U-turn at the end
combined with CCS. Gas- red capacity shows a mild increase over the period.

Nuclear generation decreases a bit initially and then increases with the introduction
of new nuclear plant. Wind generation capacity increases 12-fold in this scenario.
Hydro capacity (alongside marine and biomass) also increases steeply over the
period to 2032. Pumped storage evolves basically the same way as before.
Contracted Background (CB). This refers to all generation projects that have a
signed connection agreement with National Grid. No assumptions are made about the
likelihood of a project reaching completion. Assumptions regarding closures have
only been made where there is an explicit noti cation of a reduction in Transmission

Entry Capacity (TEC) or there is a known closure date driven by binding legislation
such as the LCPD. The known LCPD closures entail a decrease in coal generation.
As Fig. 5 shows, this scenario has gas and nuclear generation capacities reaching
their highest shares of the mix. There is also a large increase in contracted wind
overall. Pumped storage falls short of the capacity levels assumed under Acceler-
ated Growth.

Accelerated Growth

70

60

50

2012
2017
2022
2027
2032

40

30

20

10

0

Coal Natl. gas Nuclear Wind Hydro Pmp. Sto.

Power technology