Environmental Engineering Reference
In-Depth Information
data sets. A modest value of 10 %, may be safely assumed though. The develop-
ment of the market is not so strong as for PV, given that it is suitable for a more
restricted environment and type of production/consumption system. Nevertheless,
there are many projects being deployed around the world, mainly on good sites in
emerging and other more or less developed economies (South Africa and the USA,
for example). The list includes several Middle East countries (notably Saudi Arabia
and the Gulf Emirates) and countries in the North of Africa (Morocco and Algeria).
Therefore, the
law can be expected to continue to apply, and
consequently costs will continue to come down.
As for ef
'
learning-by-doing
'
ciency improvements, although research is ongoing there have been no
signi
cant results announced that would imply a big break-through. But as in any
other
eld, if deployment continues future improvements can be expected. Adding
all this up, capital costs are expected to decline by 2020 by as much as 28 % for
solar tower systems, and in the range of 17
40 % for PTC (see Table
3
). Inter-
estingly enough, increasing the storage capacity simultaneously with the solar
-
eld
does not increase the LCOE, which means that large solar plants can generate
higher pro
ts because of the dispatchable capabilities of CSP with storage [
20
]. It
must be noted also that the LCOE is very sensitive to the irradiance level: according
to some calculations irradiance increases and LCOE decreases may go hand in
hand, i.e. a 10 % DNI increase may reduce the LCOE by 10 % [
27
]. Adding all this
up, a future of plants concentrated in places of maximum irradiance can be expected
(2,500
2,900 DNI), and of the solar tower type with storage up to 18 h. or even
more, with quite large solar
-
elds, so that heat not used for immediate power
generation can be conveniently stored.
Recently, though, linear Fresnel technology with storage has been advocated.
However, even though the capital costs are lower than for solar tower or PTC
systems, its ef
ciency is also lower so it cannot be considered as a clearly superior
option, though this may change in the future, of course. Some projections for the
year 2020 are presented in Table
3
, and although they do not augur
it
must be remembered that the LCOE cost measure may not be the most adequate in
this case. The LCOE for solar tower systems may come down to the range of USD
0.12
'
grid-parity
'
0.14/kWh.
Finally, it may be worth remembering that, as pointed out above, once renew-
ables achieve a substantial share of the market they must be looked at from a joint
perspective so that potential synergies can be unlocked. This is especially so in the
case of solar energy, since PV and CSP technologies complement each other in
many respects.
0.16/kWh, and for PTC with storage to the range of USD 0.11
-
-
3.2 Solar PV
Until recently solar PV energy was little more than a curiosity. However, the recent
rapid decline in costs, by whatever yardstick they are measured, has taken politi-
cians, major utilities and the market in general by surprise, though not the traditional
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