Assessing Hurricane Intensity Using Satellites - Satellite-based Applications on Climate Change - page 156

10.5 Forecaster Applications
Hurricane forecasters and analysts assign intensity to tropical cyclones by using all
available information. In addition to the satellite data, aircraft observations provide
important intensity information, with more direct measurements of central pressure
and maximum wind. At times, surface and ship observations also provide critical
intensity data. Since the critical aircraft and surface data are not always available,
but more directly measure the intensity, they are also needed for validation and
refinement of the satellite intensity estimates.
Because each of the satellite TC intensity estimate techniques has their
limitations, they are usually used in combination. The methods that use geostation-
ary data have better temporal resolution and can be used to detect short-term trends.
The methods that use LEO data are compared to the geostationary-based estimates
when they are available, and forecasters make a subjective estimate of the TC
intensity. Methods are also being developed to objectively combine satellite-based
intensity estimates, using a satellite consensus (SATCON). These methods take
advantage of the strengths and weaknesses of each method to provide an optimal
TC intensity estimate (Herndon et al. 2010 ).
10.6 Future Outlook
The next decade should provide new opportunities for improving satellite-based
intensity estimates. The next-generation GOES satellite beginning with GOES-R
(expected launch date of late in 2015) will include an Advanced Baseline Imagery
(ABI). The ABI will include 16 channels, with improved spatial, temporal, and
radiometric resolution. The ABI has the potential to improve the existing Dvorak
technique and lead to new methods that make better use of the multispectral imagery.
The next-generation NOAA polar-orbiting satellite will include an Advanced
Technology Microwave Sounder (ATMS), which will have improved resolution
when compared to the AMSU. As described in Sect. 11.3 , the horizontal resolution
of the AMSU is still coarse relative to the scale of the TC eye. The satellites will
also include a hyperspectral IR sounder, which can be used in combination with the
ATMS to provide more accurate temperature soundings. Although the IR sounding
capabilities are primarily limited to clear regions, it may be possible to get accurate
soundings in the eyes of storms with well-defined eyes. The ATMS and high
spectral resolution Cross-track Infrared Sounder (CrIS) are now available on the
recently launched Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnerships (S-NPP), and pre-
liminary results show great potential for utilizing this new data to improve the
satellite estimates of tropical cyclone position, intensity, and structure.