Environmental Engineering Reference
In-Depth Information
Kaplan described how anarchy follows overpopulation, resource depletion
and environmental decline (Kaplan 1994). 'It is time to understand “the
environment” for what it is: the national security issue of the early twenty-
first century,' Kaplan wrote. He used the West African nations with which he
was familiar as examples of countries descending into anarchy.
Later in 1994, the central African country of Rwanda collapsed into gen-
ocidal civil war, leaving a million dead. Another two million fled the country.
A struggle between the rival Tutsi and Hutu elites for control of the
Rwandan state was the chief cause (Homer-Dixon 1999). Nevertheless, land
scarcity was a contributing factor. Most people were agricultural peasants
and the nation had the highest population density in Africa. The growth rate
was 3.4 per cent, that is, population doubling time was a mere 21 years.
(Stanton 2003).
In other parts of the world where population growth rates and rural den-
sities are high, land scarcity exacerbates tensions between groups. In the
Indian state of Bihar, for instance, it has deepended divisions between land-
holding and peasant castes, bringing land reform to a halt. Similarly in Haiti,
shortages of forests and soil have inflamed tensions between social groups,
duly obstructing technical and institutional reform (Homer-Dixon 1999).
It is commonly said that the wars of the 21st century will be fought over
another resource - water. Water is closely tied to the production of food. Of
the more than 300 river systems that cross national boundaries, those that
have the most potential for conflict run through those populous countries
where damming by upstream nations will impede the ability of downstream
neighbours to produce adequate food for ever-growing populations, nota-
bly: the Nile (Ethiopia, Sudan, Egypt); Ganges (Pakistan, India, Bangladesh);
Mekong (China, Cambodia, Laos, Vietnam); and the Tigris-Euphrates (Tur-
key, Syria, Iraq).
Climate
Graeme Pearman argues (Chapter 7) that climate change is the first truly
global challenge for sustainability. To stabilise concentrations of green-
house gas emissions will require cuts of 70 per cent or more in current
global emissions. Yet today two billion people do not have access to the
levels of energy that we enjoy, and approximately another two billion
people will be added to the world by mid-century. Poverty alleviation,
however, requires the availability of the amenity of energy. In Pearman's
