Environmental Engineering Reference
In-Depth Information
economy, the well-being of the community and the sustainability of the
natural environment. A lower economic growth rate would reduce the
demand for labour that, in the short term, could increase the unemployment
rate. But in the longer term, 'stabilising population size will reduce the pres-
sure to create the new jobs required each year to absorb new entrants into
the labour market'.
In the recent public debate over ageing, the major concern has suppos-
edly been a lack of workers in the future when there will be an excess of
dependents for each taxpayer (the dependency ratio). The debate was
hyped-up by the business and housing lobbies - those with a vested interest
in promoting population growth. It largely ignored the option of importing
workers when needed from an overcrowded world, overlooked the possibili-
ties of increasing the participation and productivity rates, and appeared
ignorant of the fact that Australia's dependency ratio was quite healthy and
would remain so for another 20 years. Nevertheless, on the assumption that
economic growth would continue at current rates, the concern about lack of
workers in 30-40 years time did have some validity.
If, however, our society does move to a low-growth or zero-growth sce-
nario, the concern about supply of future workers loses its urgency since
fewer workers will be needed. Of course, very low fertility rates (below 1.5
children per woman) will distort the age structure unduly and are best
avoided. On the other hand, the need for ecological sustainability may
require that we reduce population numbers as soon as possible. In order to
achieve this we must maintain fertility above 1.5 but below 2.1 and reduce
immigration (which, due to the age of most immigrants, has only a marginal
effect on averting an ageing population).
For too long, the debate on population has been characterised by incon-
sistency and irrationality. In Tasmania the cry is for more migrants. Yet the
logging industry is ravaging old-growth forests and when environmentalists
complain, the response is: 'We need the jobs'. It might have some credibility
were there not such a simultaneous campaign to increase the number of
workers.
Inequality and conflict
Colin Butler (Chapter 3) cites resource scarcity and inequality as fundamen-
tal drivers of human conflict. Related to these are population and environ-
ment. In his now-famous 1994 essay 'The Coming Anarchy', Robert D.
