Environmental Engineering Reference
In-Depth Information
he current body of evidence suggests that a nuclear power renaissance
can be expected. Ideologically, the nuclear power regime is too strong and
too politically connected to be ousted by a disaster brought on by a freak
act of nature. Such an event is too easily dismissed as a once in a lifetime
event. Moreover, the public appears to be buying into the LDP's mantra that
tightening up nuclear power governance will allow the nation to enjoy cheap
energy at minimal future risk.
A key factor in favor of nuclear power is the economic impact of a transi-
tion away from nuclear power. he stranded public investment, which must
be amortized over time, along with the threat of insolvency to the private
regional utilities, make it extremely hard for the government to support a
phase-out of nuclear power over the short term. Given the dire inancial
challenges currently facing the Japanese government, government initia-
tives to inance a transition to renewable energy are politically unwise, as the
ousted DPJ came to discover. his implies that any sort of transition needs
to be led by private renewable energy developers supported by the private
utilities, who already have a vested interest in nuclear power. Viewing this
from the utilities' perspective, this situation is akin to expecting tobacco
companies to voluntarily transition into the bubblegum business.
An additional economic and political barriers to a transition away from
nuclear power is what to do with the nation's new waste reprocessing facili-
ties. he government's US$20 billion investment has sired facilities that
are capable of producing up to eight tons of weapons grade plutonium per
year. his gives rise to a political dilemma if Japan discontinues its nuclear
power program. Potential foes such as North Korea and perhaps China can
justiiably question why a nation with no nuclear power program continues
to process quantities of weapons grade plutonium that could conceivably
build thousands of atomic bombs. Moreover, abandoning the Rokkasho
investment on the verge of operational start-up represents bad politics.
Opposition parties would be quick to attack the wisdom of the LDP's invest-
ment in this project if the nuclear power program were to be discontinued
and the reprocessing plant mothballed.
Finally, there is one other reason that undermines the rationale for phas-
ing out nuclear power—a phase-out would not insulate Japan from the
threat of nuclear disaster. Across the East China Sea, China is moving ahead
with a nuclear power program which, if it fully materializes, will be unprec-
edented in scale and scope. To the west and southwest, both South Korea
and Taiwan boast active nuclear power programs. If a severe nuclear power
mishap were to occur in any of these nations, the chances are high that
Japan would be adversely afected. Japanese policymakers can be forgiven
for questioning the logic of incurring the massive costs associated with a
