Environmental Engineering Reference
In-Depth Information
Conversely, the government's cost estimate for wind power relects a bias
in the opposite direction. It bases wind power cost estimates on a capacity
factor of 20%. Even back in 2007 when the estimate was generated, wind
power capacity factors of 25 to 30% were the norm. If one bases an estimate
on a 30% capacity factor, the wind power cost estimate in Table 9.2 would
fall by 25% to ¥7.5-10 (US$0.075-0.10) per kWh. Suddenly, wind power
would become a commercially competitive technology that does not pro-
duce radioactive waste that is costly (and dangerous) to manage.
he amount of sunken investment in Japan's nuclear power industry
compels the LDP to continue to support development of the industry.
Moreover, the belief that nuclear power is the most inexpensive energy
technology makes continued support for the technology a no-brainer.
In the fall of 2014 the government will start up its Rokkasho nuclear
waste reprocessing plant, which represents the next step toward its vision of
a closed nuclear cycle. In order to justify the US$20 billion that has already
been expended on this project, the nation will to have to commission new
mixed-oxide fueled (MOX) nuclear power plants, which are capable of utiliz-
ing this processed waste. his portends an escalation in investment of MOX
plants and fast breeder technology.
Continued support for nuclear power is a risky proposition should any
of the existing plants sufer technological problems. herefore, the govern-
ment is working to ensure that the nuclear safety regime is improved and
that the utilities which operate these plants exhibit a higher standard of due
diligence in regard to ensuring safety.
On the other hand, political awareness that Japan's energy mix must be
diversiied and that renewable energy must play a greater role is fueling
pressure on utilities to show a higher level of support for renewable energy.
Currently there is an elevated level of interest in expanding geothermal and
ofshore wind power capacity, and these two technologies in particular can
expect enhanced government support going forward.
9.8 WHAT TO EXPECT GOING FORWARD
It should be clear from the contents of this chapter that the future of wind
power in Japan hinges on the future of nuclear power. A return to a nuclear
power expansion agenda likely relegates wind power in Japan to a marginal,
supplemental technology. A phase-out of nuclear power forces the govern-
ment to embrace other commercially attractive low-carbon technologies,
suggesting that wind power and geothermal power would have a signiicant
role to play in Japan's energy mix.
