Environmental Engineering Reference
In-Depth Information
Economists claim that the immensity and importance of the world's unconven-
tional sources of oil are rarely acknowledged, and that the quantities reported are
based on static technology. When (conventional and unconventional) oil produc-
tion hits a maximum sustainable level, production is likely to be characterized by
an “undulating plateau,” rather than by a peak, followed by a sharp drop-off in out-
put. The trajectory of future oil production is shown in
Figure 7.1
.
Geologists counter that even if the resource base of non-conventional oil will be
tapped, production would be constrained by high specific investment and produc-
tion costs, as well as environmental regulation. Such constraints are likely to cap
production significantly. In sum, global oil supply is going to peak and start its in-
evitable decline at higher and higher oil prices.
Figure 7.1 The future of oil production
Differences in recoverable estimates and the role of technology and price ex-
plain the variations in time and volume. Both geologists and economists see a role
for unconventional oil in future oil supply. However, they disagree about the rate
