Environmental Engineering Reference
In-Depth Information
at which it can be developed and over the degree of economic and environmental
costs.
There are studies of coal and gas similar to the ones made for oil, but the re-
serves for such sources of energy are very large—and for the case of natural gas is
even growing—so such concerns are less urgent.
Uninterrupted provision of vital energy services—a proxy for “energy secur-
ity”—is a high priority of every nation. For most industrialized countries energy se-
curity is related to import dependency and aging infrastructure, while many emer-
ging economies have additional vulnerabilities such as insufficient technical capa-
city and rapid demand for growth. In many low-income countries, supply and de-
mand vulnerabilities overlap, making them especially insecure.
This situation is particularly serious with regard to oil and its derivatives, which
provide at least 90% of the transport energy needs in almost all countries that lack
available substitutes. Furthermore, the global demand for transport fuels is stead-
ily rising, especially in Asian emerging economies. Disruptions of oil supplies may
thus result in catastrophic effects on food production, medical care, security, and
other vital functions of modern states.
The remaining oil resources are increasingly geographically concentrated in just
a few countries and regions, which means that most countries must import an ever
higher share or even all of their oil needs. Over 3 billion people live in 83 countries
that import more than 75% of the oil products they consume. An additional 1.7 bil-
lion people live in countries with limited domestic oil resources and are likely to
experience similarly high levels of import dependency in the next decade or two.
The increasing concentration of conventional oil production and the rapidly shift-
ing global demand patterns make some analysts and politicians fear a “scramble
for energy” or even “resource wars.”
Import dependency is also common in countries that rely on natural gas to
provide heat and generate electricity. Almost 650 million people live in 32 Eurasian
countries that import over 75% of their gas needs. In addition, 12 countries with
some 780 million people rely on limited domestic gas reserves and are thus likely
to experience significant import dependency in the future. Short-term supply dis-
ruptions and rapid price increases are often the most serious energy security issues,
especially in those countries that rely on a single supplier and a limited number of
pipelines to import natural gas.
