Environmental Engineering Reference
In-Depth Information
Figure 11.3 Number of cars per 1000
population in developing countries (top) and
the legacy world (bottom) in 2010 [147]. The
number of people in the developing countries
listed is about 2.5 times the combined
population of the EU, Japan, and United States.
Rapid growth seems assured in these
developing countries, assuring rapid increase in
energy demand.
(http://www.huf
ngtonpost.ca/2011/08/23/car-population_n_934291.html), com-
pared to the present value of 92 million bbl/day [152].
A similar pattern is likely to exist for electricity and total energy use. It has been
predicted [153] that over the next 20 years the growth in Chinas economy will average
7% per year, compared to 11% over the past decade. This is consistent with a
statement that electric power demand in China is growing at a 10% rate.
11.4
Can Energy Supply Meet Demand in the Longer Future?
This question is addressed at length in the recent topic of Daniel Yergin ([147], p. 704).
We have seen in Figure 1.1 that oil is the largest single source of energy, providing
about 6 TW, or about 40% of the total global power consumption. Oil is also the most
threatened energy source, well known to be limited in supply, estimated as 1.4
10
12
10
12
barrels [152] in 1900. This implies that 42% of
available oil has been extracted since 1900. The remaining accessible oil reserve can
be expressed as the number of years at a production level of 100 million bbl/day, and
this number is 38.4 years, taking Yergins reserve
figure. (The present production is
92 million bbl/day, and rising.)
barrels, compared to 2.4
11.4.1
The
Oil Bubble
Informed views have been expressed [147, 152] that exploration and more extreme
techniques of extraction will keep oil production rising modestly for a few decades.
The historical plot of oil production [152] shows a roughly linear rise from around
15 million barrels per day in 1950 to 92 million bbl/day in 2011. Optimism is
expressed in that the rate of extraction is still rising. In fact, production has grown by
