Environmental Engineering Reference
In-Depth Information
30%, in an accurately linear fashion since 1978. Yergin speci
cally predicts that
production will continue to rise for 20 years leading to a production of 110 million bbl/d in
2030. Adhering to Yergins
gure of 1.4 trillion barrels of accessible oil remaining,
the rising production implies that the remaining 58%will be used more quickly. The
production curve [152] if extended linearly, as Yergin predicts, from92million barrels
per day in 2011 to 110million bbl/day in 2030 and beyond allows a simple estimate of
about 35.5 years, to expend the remaining 58%of the oil. On thismodel, the last of the
accessible oil [152] will be used in 2046.
A similar prediction is made by Richter [154], who says that the next 30 years will
expend as much oil as have been used to date, the latter about 10
12
barrels. He points
out, however, that there will continue to be heavy oil at about three times the price,
coming from tar sands, bitumen, and shale. Richter says, Oil will start to become
much more expensive after 2030
...
. Other methods of fueling transportation will be
needed.
Since oil production before 1950 accounts for very little of the total oil, the
extrapolated production curve, for accessible oil, following Yergins prediction, can
be described as an oil bubble extending from about 1950 to 2046. The details of the
extrapolated production curve past 2030 may vary, but the era of inexpensive energy
will certainly end. (It is also predicted by oil executives, citing increased demand from
China and India, that the price will rise signi
cantly above the recent peak level of
$147 per barrel, apart from any question of falling supply [155].)
A sharply rising price will lead markets to shift to other energy sources, such as
gasoline re
ned from natural gas and coal, and to various renewable sources of
energy. The African
firm Sasol has produced 1.5 billion gallons of gasoline (http://
www.slate.com/articles/business/moneybox/2006/10/thanks_for_the_cheap_gas_
mr_hitler.html?nav
ais) from coal and gas, based on the Fischer
-
Tropsch chemical
process. The supply of coal has been estimated as enough to last until 2080 [154]. The
rising price of oil will be good news for sellers of renewable energy, although it will be
disruptive to the world economy in many ways. It will have its greatest effect on the
legacy world, notably the owners of the 2 billion autos, but will have almost no impact
on the third world.
Adapting to disruption will be easiest in the developing countries, because they are
able to build new facilities as appropriate, rather than face a task of modifying or
replacing old facilities. China in particular has a strong central government that
seems to be forward-looking and able to take executive steps without hesitation to
adapt to new situations. It is buildingmany newcoal-red electric plants, by necessity,
as well as researching ways to bury the carbon dioxide rather than to release it into the
atmosphere. China is going rapidly ahead with renewable energy in hydroelectric
power, as exemplied by the Three Gorges dam, in Three Gorges of Wind farms,
and in solar electric facilities. It is taking steps toward electric cars. China recognizes
the importance of an electric grid to integrate the renewable sources. Since the cost of
energy storage is so high, the problem of intermittency in wind and solar energy
seems best solved by combining sources in a large network [156].
While innovation often does not originate in China, Chinese
firms are taking over
the manufacture of the new items, especially solar panels and the blades for wind
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