Civil Engineering Reference
In-Depth Information
Situational analysis
This step looks at the current status of the water resource, the benefits that
the water resource provides (social, economic, environmental) and future
threats, risks and opportunities.
A situational analysis provides a base for planning by clarifying current
resource condition and use, and trends and factors that are likely to impact
upon the resource in the future. It usually involves developing a model of the
hydrologic behaviour of the system, which can be anything from a simple
static model (e.g. a water balance showing estimated long-term average
inflows, outflows and storage levels) through to a complex time-series model
(e.g. a computer model that simulates the detailed behaviour of the system
over many years on a short time-step). The situational analysis also attempts
to estimate what future inflows and system behaviour might be, typically
by extrapolating from the past. This is of necessity statistical rather than
specifically predictive, with such future forecasts being in terms of likely
long-term averages and trends, with likely statistical variations (e.g. daily/
seasonal) around them. A range of possible future scenarios can be developed
to allow for more robust planning for future uncertainty and risk associated
with climatic variability and change.
Ideally, the situational analysis sets out how the behaviour of the water
resource affects water-dependent ecosystems. This too can range from simple,
broad conceptual models of cause and effect through to complex models of
flows/water levels and ecosystem responses.
Situational analysis also involves developing an understanding of how
much and for what purpose the water from the resource is currently used
by people, e.g. for irrigation, domestic and town water supply, harvesting
of flora and fauna for food and fibre, hydroelectricity, industry, recreation,
cultural, etc. It also looks at likely future demands for water for these
purposes. Amongst other things, this can lead to a more effective community
engagement programme because it clarifies who the stakeholders are and the
nature of their interests.
By providing an understanding of the cause and effect relationships
and future opportunities and risks, the situational analysis can provide a
foundation for the identification of actions and development of tools and
indicators to assess the likely effect of actions on outcomes. Another use of the
situational analysis is to provide a baseline for future monitoring of resource
condition and use. In most cases, the monitoring program is established once
actions are formulated and it is often part of the plan.
We discuss situational analysis in detail in chapter 5.
Objectives and logic
Given the situational analysis, this step is where broad decisions are
made on the outcomes that are being sought. These represent the social,
