Agriculture Reference
In-Depth Information
tAble 23.2
Predicted Percentage Price Increases in feedstock crops in 2020 due to
Aggressive growth in biofuel demand with Alternative technological
Assumptions
biofuel demand growth with
Increased Productivity
growth
b
Cassava +135 +54
Corn +41 +23
Oilseeds +76 +43
Sugar beet +25 +10
Sugarcane +66 +43
Wheat +30 +16
a
Assumes that bioethanol and biodiesel replace 20% of gasoline by 2020 in most of the world except
Brazil, the European Union, and the United States (for which other projections are used). Productivity
of these crops is assumed to grow through 2020 but not be influenced by their demand as biofuels.
b
Assumes the same demand growth but also increases in cellulosic conversion technologies and higher
productivity growth for these crops.
Source:
From M.W. Rosegrant, S. Msangi, T. Sulser, and R. Valmonte-Santos. December 2006, in:
Bioenergy and Agriculture: Promises and Challenges
. Washington, DC: International Food
Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). Brief 3 of 12, 2020 Vision for Food Agriculture an the
Environment, Focus 14.
biofuel demand growth with
baseline Productivity
growth
a
feedstock crop
Reducing the trade-offs between biofuel crops and food production will require
research and development activities to increase the yield of energy per unit land,
a greater focus on food crops that also generate by-products suitable for biofuel
production, expanded production of biofuel crops that grow in less-favored areas,
increased productivity of the food crops themselves, and removing barriers to trade
in biofuels (Hazell, 2006). These actions will reduce the amount of land required for
both food and fuel production, reducing the potential negative impacts of biofuels
on food consumers.
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According to Regmi and Gehlhar (2007), in recent years there has been an unprece-
dented growth in supermarkets in developing countries. Such growth is taking place
mostly in many Latin American and Asian countries, in which consumer demand for
higher-valued processed food products have increased as a result of rising incomes.
The implications of such trends are closer geographical integration and increas-
ing centralization of food supply chains. Only 15 years ago, the supermarket sec-
tor in most Latin American and Asian countries consisted of small firms financed
by domestic capital operating primarily in the major cities' upscale neighborhoods.
