Agriculture Reference
In-Depth Information
will require developing, adapting, and disseminating new technologies and produc-
tion systems. In addition, because most livestock products are more perishable and
not as easily stored as grains, developments in the processing and transportation will
also be necessary. Technological, institutional, and regulatory structures throughout
the marketing chain will be challenged to evolve rapidly.
The LR is expected to create opportunities for livestock producers in the develop-
ing world given that production growth in the developed world will not keep pace
with growing global demand. However, whether small-scale producers can benefit
from increases in demand depends in large measure on the nature of transforma-
tions in the postfarm supply chain. Concerns about the LR include potential adverse
effects on the poor in the developing world due to increases in grain prices driven by
increased demand for animal feed and allocation of cropland to fodder production,
potential negative environmental impacts, and public health systems in developing
countries. Research related to these concerns (e.g., Delgado et al., 1999; Nicholson et
al., 2001; Randolph et al. 2007) has suggested that many of them can be addressed
through a combination of policies of institutional strengthening and research that
allows the livestock sector to contribute more to food security and poverty allevia-
tion while addressing environmental and public health concerns.
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Bioenergy
is energy generated from the production of fuels of biological and renew-
able origin. These biofuels include traditional fuel sources such as fuel wood, char-
coal, and manure, but more recently a great deal of interest has been shown in the
production of liquid biofuels such as ethanol and biodiesel. Biofuels are touted as
having the potential to reduce carbon emissions (although net carbon balance varies
greatly; Hazell and Pachuri, 2006), to have production potential in a wide variety of
countries, and to increase the demand for agricultural products that were believed to
be in “chronic oversupply”
6
(Hazell and Pachuri, 2006).
Although this increased demand for agricultural production may be beneficial
to some farmers, it has potentially important implications for global food supply,
demand, and prices. Increasing demand for crops to be used as “feedstock” for bio-
fuel production can increase the prices of those crops, and these effects may be
further exacerbated by the allocation of land to the production of nonfood crops
grown specifically for conversion into biofuels. Higher prices for food will tend to
negatively affect the poor (who are net buyers of food), but this may be offset to some
extent by cheaper energy or by employment opportunities generated in the produc-
tion of biofuels.
The extent to which increases in biofuel demand will increase food prices was
examined by Rosegrant et al. (2006). They found that, under assumptions of fairly
aggressive demand growth for ethanol and biodiesel, prices for key food crops that
can be used for biofuels production would increase between 10 and 135% (Table 23.2).
The development of new technologies in the conversion of nonfood feedstocks (using
what is called
cellulosic conversion technologies
) to biofuels and faster productivity
increases in food crop production would result in lower—but still reasonably large—
price increases.
