Environmental Engineering Reference
In-Depth Information
Source: Christy, Climate Model Output from KNMI, Climate Explorer (2014)
Here's the summary of what has actually happened—a summary that nearly every climate scientist
would have to agree with. Since the industrial revolution, we've increased CO
2
in the atmosphere from
.03 percent to .04 percent, and temperatures have gone up less than a degree Celsius, a rate of increase
that has occurred at many points in history.
25
Few deny that during the last fifteen-plus years, the time of
record and accelerating emissions, there has been little to no warming—and the models failed to predict
that.
26
By contrast, if one assumed that CO
2
in the atmosphere had no major positive feedbacks, and just
warmed the atmosphere in accordance with the greenhouse effect, this mild warming is pretty much what
one would get.
Thus every prediction of drastic future consequences is based on
speculative models
that have failed
to predict the climate trend so far and that
speculate a radically different trend than what has actually
happened in the last thirty to eighty years of emitting substantial amounts of CO
2
. And we have not even
explored the complete failure to make accurate predictions about climate changes in specific regions,
which is what really matters in assessing and adapting to any climate-related threats.
If a climate prediction model can't predict climate, it is not a valid model—and predictions made on
the basis of such a model are not scientific. Those whose models fail but still believe their core hypothesis
right still need to acknowledge their failure. If they believe that their hypothesis is right and that complete
lack of dramatic warming is just the calm before the storm, they should state all the evidence pro and con.
Unfortunately, many of the scientists, scientific bodies, and especially public intellectuals and media
members have not been honest with the public about the failure of their predictions. Like all too many who
are attached to a theory that ends up contradicting reality, they have tried to pretend that reality is different
from what it is, to the point of extreme and extremely dangerous dishonesty.
