Environmental Engineering Reference
In-Depth Information
Figure 4.2: The NASA/Hansen Climate Model Predictions vs. Reality
Sources: Hansen et al. (1988); RSS; Met Office Hadley Centre HadCRUT4 dataset; RSS Lower troposphere data
Note in particular that since the late 1990s, there has been no increase in average temperatures. Hansen
andeveryotherbelieverincatastrophicglobalwarmingexpectedthattherewouldbe,forthesimplereason
that we have used record, accelerating amounts of CO
2
. But as the official government data show, these
CO
2
increases have not driven major temperature increases; as CO
2
has increased dramatically, there have
been relatively mild periods of warming, cooling, and now flattening. Thus, not just Hansen's model but
every climate model based on CO
2
as a major climate driver has been a failure.
Hereisagraphof102prominent,modernclimatemodelsputtogetherbyJohnChristyoftheUniversity
of Alabama at Huntsville, who collects satellite measurements of temperature. Even though the modern
models have the benefit of hindsight and “hindcasting,” reality is so inconsistent with the theory that they
can't come up with a plausible model. And note how radically different all the predictions are; this illus-
trates that the field of predicting climate is in its infancy.
Figure 4.3: Climate Prediction Models That Can't Predict Climate
