Biology Reference
In-Depth Information
Table 8.1
Iowa Electronic Health Market Novel Influenza A (H1n1) Markets and Contracts
How many cases of novel influenza A (H1N1) will be confirmed in the United States by
end of May 2009?
200 or fewer cases
201 to 350 cases
351 to 600 cases
601 to 1100 cases
1101 or more cases
How many states in the United States will have at least one confirmed case of novel
influenza A (H1N1) by the end of May 2009?
1 to 10 states
11 to 20 states
21 to 30 states
31 to 40 states
41 to 50 states
What will the mortality rate for novel influenza A (H1N1) be by the end of July 2009?
Lower than 1%
1% to 2.5%
2.5% to 5%
5% to 10%
Higher than 10%
How long will the novel influenza A (H1N1) outbreak last?
Before May 31
June 1 to June 30
July 1 to July 31
After July 31
How many countries will have at least one confirmed case of novel influenza A (H1N1) by
the end of July 2009?
25 or fewer countries
26 to 50 countries
51 to 75 countries
76 to 100 countries
101 or more countries
the novel influenza A (H1N1) outbreak would last for more than 2 months
in the United States (Figure 8.6).
We were pleased with the performance of our market. Despite a limited num-
ber of active traders, we were able to aggregate information and make reason-
ably accurate predictions. Our recruitment efforts were minimal. For example,
unlike for our H5N1 market, we did not recruit traders using the ProMED-mail
Listserv. In addition, unlike for our previous infectious disease markets, we
sent only one e-mail reminder to trade, that e-mail coming after we opened two
