Biology Reference
In-Depth Information
Figure 8.1a
Beginning trading interface.
new contracts. In other markets, our practice has been to send weekly e-mail
reminders to all traders. One of the new contracts we opened was related to
novel influenza A (H1N1) vaccine availability during the next influenza season
and the other regarded the likelihood of the return and the extent of the return
of novel influenza A (H1N1) during the next influenza season.
Some of our market's limitations were related to the availability of under-
lying surveillance data. We considered opening additional contracts to pre-
dict the total number of cases in the United States, but some states decided
after a few weeks not to attempt confirmation of all suspected novel influ-
enza A (H1N1) cases. Thus, we did not open new case-number contracts.
We also found that the variance around some of our predictions seemed
higher than that of previous markets. This is likely because we did not use
real money in this market. In addition, the volume of trading decreased
over time. In the past, we have demonstrated that trading levels are higher
with reminder e-mails. Thus, in future projects, we would advocate sending
weekly reminders for trading. Interpretation of prices also depends upon
active trading. Because prices change with each trade, one trader can greatly
affect the short-term price of a contract. In an active market, this is less likely.
Our country contract shows how volatile markets can be and underscores
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