Environmental Engineering Reference
In-Depth Information
Based on socio-economic data from the China Statistical Abstract of 2011 [
1
],
keeping frozen the development pattern of 2005—i.e., assuming there is no prog-
ress in energy intensity of GDP, and no change for structural optimization—total
carbon emissions would be 9.1 billion tons of CO
2
, which will be 25.2 % higher
than actual emissions.
The analysis shows that the effect on slowing down the increase of carbon
emissions from optimization of the energy consumption structure is not significant:
keeping frozen the energy consumption structure of 2005, carbon emissions in 2010
would be 7.6 billion ton-CO
2
, which is 1.6 % higher than current emissions.
Accumulated carbon emissions reductions amounted to 1.4 billion tons of CO
2
during the 11th FYP, due to the integrated influence from energy-savings and
energy efficiency improvements for energy structure optimization and economic
structure adjustments.
To evaluate the impact of macro policies on slowing down carbon emissions, the
following equation was adopted:
X
Y ¼
Xi Ei Ii þ El
=
GDP
(2.7)
i
Where:
Y stands for carbon intensity of GDP
Xi stands for the share of i industry of total GDP
Ei stands for energy intensity of i industry GDP
Ii stands for carbon intensity of energy consumption from i industry
El stands for residential carbon emissions
Since energy consumption data by sector in 2010 is not available, we analyze
carbon intensity improvements from 2005 to 2009.
If there were no special measures or actions on energy efficiency improvements
and carbon emissions reductions during the first 4 years of the 11th FYP, total
carbon emissions in 2009 would amount to 8.08 billion tons of CO
2
, which would
be 1.34 billion higher than actual emissions in 2009.
Based on Eq.
4.7
, the contributions of specific policies in improving carbon
emissions from 2005 to 2009 are shown in Table
2.8
.
It can be determined that the contribution from the adjustment of the economic
structure on the carbon intensity of GDP was negative,
10.28 %, reflecting the
difficulty and challenges in optimizing the economic structure during its rapid
industrialization and urbanization.
In the first 4 years of the 11th FYP, the annual average carbon intensity
improvement rate of residential energy consumption stood at 4.6 %.
But with the enhancement of residential living quality, the averaged growth rate of
residential energy use was about 7 % from 2005 to 2009, which offset improvements
of residential carbon intensity; which stands as a negative contribution.
