Environmental Engineering Reference
In-Depth Information
Third, the Low-Carbon Scenario. This scenario envisages a preliminary consen-
sus in the global response to climate change, including smooth technology transfers
and financial assistance. Furthermore, It comprehensively considers China's sus-
tainable development, energy security, economic competitiveness and energy-
saving capabilities. China will strive to transform its economic development
model, adjust production and consumption patterns and strengthen its technical
progress. This scenario envisages significant changes in the economic development
model, energy structure, energy-saving technology as well as lifestyle to achieve a
balance between social economic development, energy and the environment.
Fourth, the Enhanced Low-Carbon Scenario. This scenario envisions a con-
certed global emissions reduction scheme to achieve lower greenhouse gas
concentrations. In this scenario, developed countries and developing countries
work together with main mitigation technologies to promote further development.
Key low-carbon technologies will achieve major breakthroughs, which will be
coupled with a significant decline in the cost of energy-saving technologies. In
this scenario, China's low-carbon energy development will experience favorable
external conditions in terms of cooperation in the development of new technologies,
capital investment, using high-quality energy and diversifying energy development.
Meanwhile, the international community is increasing its input in a low-carbon
economy, and carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology is being transferred to
developing countries without charge. In this case, China's clean coal technology
and CCS technology has achieved breakthroughs. In particular, CCS technology is
now widely used.
8.3.3 Main Conclusions and Findings from the Scenario Analysis
• To achieve the social and economic development targets by 2050, China's
total energy demand might double, and the growth rate of energy demand from
the industrial sector will gradually slow down after 2035. Construction and
transportation sectors will become the major contributors to energy
demand growth. Without a breakthrough in CCS technology, the nation's
high level of electrification and coal-based power structure will make it difficult
to achieve a sharp decline in China's future carbon emissions.
•
If we do not implement a specially enhanced greenhouse gas emissions
(GHG) reduction policy, China's total energy demand will reach 6.69 billion
tce even under the energy-saving scenario, and GHG emissions will reach
12.16 billion t of CO
2.
Taking into account its huge population base, China
would have by then achieved its strategic objective of a “Three-Step Develop-
ment Strategy”, with 20 % lower per capita energy consumption than Japan's
current level, but such a high energy demand and carbon emissions will undoubt-
edly bring huge challenges to China's sustainable development as well as
global energy markets, investment, environmental protection and even
energy security.
