Environmental Engineering Reference
In-Depth Information
Table 8.1
Brief description of the four scenarios
Scenario Description
Baseline scenario Will fully consider the needs of domestic development and assumes
China's per capita energy consumption will drop by 10 % compared to
the most energy efficient countries when China reaches a moderately
developed country status by mid-twenty-first century. Economic
development will adopt the industrialization process of developed
countries while taking into consideration the impact on energy supply
by advantages of backwardness, technological innovation and progress.
Objectively, there will be a certain increase in the supply of hydropower,
nuclear power and renewable energy
Energy saving scenario Will fully consider current energy-saving measures but will not take
special measures to address climate change; this is possibly the future
energy demand and carbon emissions scenario. Under this scenario,
attention will be paid to shifting the economic development mode,
continuing current energy-saving and emissions-reduction policies and
putting the economy, society, energy and the environment in a “tight
balance.” Despite improvements in the comprehensive national strength,
heavy investment in technology and technological progress, there will
be no fundamental changes in lifestyles and consumption patterns
Low-carbon scenario With a complete understanding of its sustainable development, energy
security, economic competitiveness and energy-saving capabilities,
China will make take all measures to change its economic development
model, production and consumption pattern, strengthen its technical
progress and strive for a low carbon scenario based on the premise of a
global consensus on tackling climate change, which is characterized by
smooth technology transfers and financial assistance. Under this scenario,
energy-saving equipment manufacturing, the nuclear power industry and
the renewable energy industry will develop faster and reach a
considerable scale, while carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology
will become more prevalent in the power generation sector, basically
forming an energy-saving production pattern
Enhanced low-carbon
scenario
With international support, developing countries meet their financial and
technical needs, consistent with global emissions reduction targets to
achieve lower greenhouse gas concentrations. Under this scenario,
developed and developing countries will work together to further research
key mitigation technologies, achieve major breakthroughs in low-carbon
technologies, and attain faster significant declines in the cost of energy-
saving technologies. Under this scenario, China will gain better external
conditions, which will put the country on an ideal footing in terms of new
technology R&D cooperatives and capital inputs. In addition, China will
make progress in the use of high-quality energy and promoting diversified
development. Meanwhile, thanks to the transfer of CCS and other major
carbon technologies from developed countries, China's clean coal
technology and CCS technologies will achieve wide use
economic development mode. Current energy-saving and emissions-reduction
policies will be continued to put the economy, society, energy and the environment
in a “tight balance.” Despite enhancing comprehensive national strength, heavy
investments in technology and fast technological progress, no fundamental changes
will occur to lifestyle and consumption patterns.
