Agriculture Reference
In-Depth Information
11.1
MALTHUS: SCAREMONGER OR PROPHET?
One of the best known scholarly publications about food supply and population was
written by Thomas Malthus in 1798.
1
At the time there was a debate about the general
nature of humans and how we would survive in the future. He responded to speculations
by his colleagues with convincing arguments using statistics and mathematics to show
that while food supply could optimistically be assumed to increase arithmetically, popu-
lation increases geometrically: “Population, when unchecked, increases in a geometrical
ratio. Subsistence increases only in an arithmetical ratio.” (Malthus, Chapter 1, p. 4).
He presented a numerical example summarized in Table 11.1.
Under conditions where food was not limiting, the population doubled every 25
years, as happened in the United States during the last part of the 1700s. Even with
the most optimistic views of agricultural production, it was highly improbable that
food supplies could be increased by more than a fixed amount during the same 25
years. The result of this simple calculation was that millions of people would be
without food within a hundred years. Even after taking into account diseases, wars,
and other causes of mortality, his predictions still forecast a time when the number
of humans would be greater than the food supply could support.
11.2
FAMINES
Malthus predicted that disastrous famines would take place if population were not
controlled. The human race has a long history of famines, and we should not lightly
ignore this history. Famine is generally defined as “a prolonged food shortage that
causes widespread hunger and death.”
2
A regional famine may affect only certain
population groups in a region, normally, the poorest. In a general famine all classes
of a society in an affected region suffer. Famines are also classified by their cause:
natural or human. Natural causes include drought, flooding, cold, plant diseases,
and crop damage by insects. Human causes include hoarding, military blockades,
governmental interference, and price differentials.
T A B L E 11.1. Arithmetic and Geometric Increases Predicted by Malthus
Population in
Thousands
Food Available
for Thousands
Food Not
Available for Thousands
Year
Subsistence
1800
100
7,000
7,000
0
1825
200
14,000
14,000
0
1850
300
28,000
21,000
7,000
1875
400
56,000
28,000
28,000
1900
500
112,000
35,000
77,000
1925
600
224,000
42,000
182,000
1950
700
448,000
49,000
399,000
1975
800
896,000
56,000
840,000
2000
900
1,792,000
63,000
1,729,000
