FOOD SECURITY - Science for Agriculture and Rural Development in Low-income Countries - page 42

Increases and total rice production in Thailand and Vietnam are lower, and limited
by a larger share of areas with low soil fertility and/or less reliable water supply and
rainfall.
The steep increase in rice production in China started already around 1960 and
was triggered by the release of new semi-dwarf and hybrid rice varieties (Peng et al.
2004) (Figure 4). India followed in the second half of the 1960s, and Indonesia in
the second half of the 1970s, while in Thailand growth continues at a low but steady
rate. Due to the turmoil caused by war, Vietnam re-entered this competition only in
the 1980s, however, with remarkable success.
The main producers and consumers of rice in Asia are China and India and to a
lesser extent, Indonesia. In the first two countries, production tends to decrease in
the last years and shows a strong inter-annual variation. In particular in eastern
China, rapid economic growth and urbanization has resulted in a change in cropping
pattern and agricultural systems in response to changing demand (i.e., higher
incomes result in a more luxury consumption pattern which leads to replacement of
staple foods like rice by, e.g., vegetables, fruits, dairy products and meat), resulting
in a larger market and more stable and much higher prices (than for rice), and in a
reduction in arable land through expansion of urban land uses (Lu et al. 2007).
These developments are expected to result in a reduction in rice production in China
in the coming years.
The production decreases in low-production years during 2000-2004 in China
and India appear large compared to rice production in the main exporting countries
like Thailand and Vietnam (Figure 4). This implies that these countries will not be
able to fill the rice gap, if production in, for example China, continues to decrease
and consumption patterns do not change rapidly. On the other hand, an increase in
rice price, if rice production is clearly lagging behind demand and economic growth
continues, might well result in an accelerated shift to consumption of other staple
products (wheat, maize), vegetables, dairy products and meat and in a reversal in

Total production
(10 6 metric ton)

240

China
India
Indonesia
Thailand
Viet Nam

200

160

120

80

40

0

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Ye a r

Figure 4. Development of rice production, in selected Asian countries: 1961-2004