Agriculture Reference
In-Depth Information
are selected resulting in a reduction in nitrogen surplus of 130 kg N ha
-1
compared
to the reference situation, caused by lower nitrogen inputs in cropping systems. The
manure nitrogen surplus increased by about 20% due to increased feed intake with a
higher nitrogen content and the associated higher animal productivity. Land use
activities with mechanized field operations are selected on 34% of the area under the
rice-vegetables systems in this scenario, but not for other systems. These labour-
saving activities are sufficiently remunerative and contribute to solving the labour
constraints that limit a further increase in economic returns. Labour bottlenecks in
this scenario are associated with harvesting of vegetables and fruits, and operations
in woody ornamentals for which no mechanized alternatives were defined. Although
the costs of production in cropping activities are lower than in the reference scenario,
the major share of the 6% increase in per capita income and land productivity is
derived from higher returns from livestock activities.
Table 1.
Results (in units per year) of the reference, intensification, diversification, land expansion
and exit scenarios
Indicator
Unit
Ref.
Intensi-
Diversification
Land
Exit
fication
D1
D2
expansion
Labour income
CNY/pers 12,850 13,610 15,920 16,050
14,772 15,540
CNY/ha
Land productivity
62,250 65,920 77,110 77,720
58,716 60,180
Share active agri-
cultural population
%
32
32
35
63
33
35
kg N/ha
N surplus
425
296
412
237
251
283
Biocide index
-
756
758
747
747
632
664
Ratio agricultural area
per forest area
-
0.46
0.46
0.46
0.46
0.56
0.46
Land use:
Rice
ha
6,805
6,804
6,521
6,521
6,701
6,660
Vegetables
ha
3,745
3,745
3,584
3,584
3,685
2,896
Rice-vegetables
ha
3,309
3,210
3,654
3,653
3,373
3,436
Fruits
ha
8,107
8,107
8,162
8,162
13,183
9,146
Woody ornamentals
ha
1,395
1,395
1,340
1,340
1,396
1,105
Animal population
%
100
100
200
200
100
100
Labour force
%
100
100
100
100
100
80
Share unused manure
in N surplus
%
22
39
57
0
38
41
Cropping intensity
%
1.75
1.75
1.62
Mechanized activities
%
0
5
11
11
12
15
Diversification
First, Table 1 shows the scenario results for D1 and D2 - i.e., when
the number of animals in Pujiang is doubled. In scenario D1, manure is not used in
cropping systems, while in scenario D2 it contributes to the nutrient requirements of
cropping systems. The slightly higher per capita income and land productivity in D2
compared to D1 is a consequence of the lower costs for fertilizers, while manure is
available at no costs and only requires labour for transport and distribution in the
field. Manure application in cropping systems increases the participation in the
active agricultural labour force (from 35% to 63%), indicating the labour-intensity
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