PROJECT ASSESSMENTS - Science for Agriculture and Rural Development in Low-income Countries - page 175

of transport and distribution of manure. Concurrently, it results in a much lower
nitrogen surplus in scenario D2 than in D1 and in the previous scenarios, as
witnessed by the share of unused manure in the nitrogen surplus. In scenario D1 the
opposite trend is observed, i.e., the share of unused manure in the regional nitrogen
surplus increases to 57% due to the larger number of manure producing animals.
Agricultural land expansion The less fertile soils that become available in the land
expansion scenario, are only used for fruit production (Table 1), the most profitable
and least labour-demanding activity. Although average land productivity is 11%
lower than in the intensification scenario, per capita income is 8% higher.
Exit from agriculture We show in Table 1 the consequences of a 20% reduction in
the agricultural labour force of Pujiang. Total regional economic surplus decreases
less than the agricultural labour force, so that overall per capita income is 14%
higher than in the intensification scenario. In contrast, land productivity is about 9%
lower, due to the change from vegetable production to the less labour-demanding,
but also less profitable fruit production.
Conclusions
Location-specific socio-economic conditions, such as access to labour and product
markets, and biophysical conditions, determine the potentials for and constraints to
diversification, adoption of technological innovations and productivity increase in
rice-based cropping systems. Furthermore, in many parts of E and SE Asia the
current production structure, i.e., small land holdings with high labour/land ratios,
limits the choice portfolio of farmers for applying new farming activities and tech-
nologies. Here, we have explored the consequences of four major poverty reduction
strategies at the regional level.
Diversification towards livestock production seems the most promising strategy
to increase per capita income. However, to avoid environmental problems (N-surplus)
that might interfere with environmental protection, manure should be applied effici-
ently in cropping systems. In that respect, the scope for expansion of animal husbandry
seems limited in Pujiang, as the cropping systems can accommodate only a restricted
quantity of manure nitrogen, and manure produced in excess of that level negatively
affects the environment. It is remarkable that the N surplus in the reference scenario
and in D1 is identical, despite a doubling of the number of animals in the last
scenario.
The increased N surplus due to more animals in D1 is completely compensated
by the more efficient nutrient utilization in the cropping systems through site specific
nutrient management. This illustrates the impact of improved nutrient management
in cropping systems and the derived environmental benefits, as also is shown in the
intensification scenario. In contrast, the effects of improved nutrient management on
per capita income seem to be only slightly positive which may hamper their adoption
by farmers.
Incorporation of manure in cropping systems is very labour-demanding and thus
significantly increases regional labour participation, although it may be questioned
whether this would represent 'gainful' employment. More important is its favourable