Biology Reference
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mimic a series of chance daily encounters between humans who may be infected with
the disease.
For the first turn, without looking, randomly pull two balls out of the bag. If the
two balls are the same color, then put them back in the bag. If one ball is blue and the
other is pink, replace the blue ball with a pink ball, and put the two pink balls back
into the bag.
Exercise 4.1.
What assumption are we making when we replace the blue ball with
a pink ball? Do you think we should always replace the blue ball with a pink ball
when we draw a pink and blue ball together? How else might we create rules for this
turn?
Let's modify our rule for drawing a pink ball and a blue ball together so that some
of the disease simulations will assume a lower probability of catching the disease
through contact with an infected person.
If your birthday is in January - June, then always replace the blue ball with a pink
ball.
If your birthday is in July - December, then flip a coin and only replace the blue
ball with a pink ball if you flip a heads.
As we take repeated “turns” of drawing and replacing pairs of balls, we wish to
simulate disease recovery by periodically replacing a single pink “infected” ball with
a single yellow “recovered” ball.
Exercise 4.2.
What real-life assumption is mimicked by replacing a pink ball with
a yellow ball every 10 turns?
We suggest dividing assumptions for length-to-recovery through the class as fol-
lows:
First names that start with A-I: every 5th turn, before drawing your pair of balls,
first replace one of the pink balls with a yellow ball.
First names that start with J-P: every 10th turn, before drawing your pair of balls,
first replace one of the pink balls with a yellow ball.
First names that start with Q-Z: every 15th turn, before drawing your pair of balls,
first replace one of the pink balls with a yellow ball.
At this point, we're ready to repeat the simulation steps through many “days,” until
there are no pink balls left in the cup. Note that if a yellow ball is chosen with a pink
or blue ball, no replacements are to be made. At the end of each “turn,” record the
number of blue, pink, and yellow balls that are in the bag.
Exercise 4.3.
What real-life assumption is mimicked by not replacing the yellow
ball with a pink ball when we draw a pink and yellow ball together?
Exercise 4.4.
Complete your simulation. How many “turns” did it take for the
simulation to end?
Exercise 4.5.
What are the agents in this model? What characteristic(s) does each
agent have? What are the rule(s) governing the system?
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