Biology Reference
In-Depth Information
Susceptible
Humans
Infected
Humans
Recovered
Humans
FIGURE 4.1
We use blue, pink, and yellow balls to represent susceptible, infected, and recovered
humans in our hands-on agent-based modeling activity.
4.1.2 A Brief Note About Platforms
Agent-based modeling in its most simple form can be accomplished using human
agents performing hands-on experiments. A fun activity is to use colored marbles
or beads to simulate a disease spreading through a classroom population (the full
details are available in the article by Gaff et al. [ 3 ]). These experiments provide a
light introduction to the concept of global phenomena that can result from individual
behaviors.
4.1.2.1 ABMModelingExercise:DiseaseSpread
Let's simulate a disease moving through a population. Gather a bunch of beads,
marbles, or balls in three different colors. In our explanation, we'll follow Gaff's
model [ 3 ] and assume that blue balls represent people who have not caught this
disease, the susceptible people. We will assume that pink balls represent people who
are infected with the disease, and we'll assume that yellow balls represent people
who have recovered from this disease, and are now immune from re-infection (see
Figure 4.1 ).
Each person or pair in the class will conduct a simulation on a population of 20
balls that are hidden in an open container, such as a paper bag. Howwould the number
of infected balls that we start with change the dynamics of how the disease moves
through the population? We suggest dividing up as follows:
￿ Last names that start with A-I, place 19 blue balls and 1 pink ball in the bag.
￿ Last names that start with J-P, place 18 blue balls and 2 pink balls in the bag.
￿ Last names that start with Q-Z, place 16 blue balls and 4 pink balls in the bag.
We are going to simulate a disease spreading through a population by moving
through a series of chance encounters. We will play a “game” in which each “turn”
consists of removing and replacing two balls from our bag, and in this way we'll
 
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