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① based on similar users
correspond to user-based CF
probability of act t
P u a →act t ?
② based on action
correspond to item-based CF
Fig. 6. Approach of predicting missing activity
4.1
Prediction Based on Similar Users
Based on the following ideas, we calculate similarity between two users in emergency
situations.
- It is highly probable that as same as user u a , similar users also did before action
( Did ( a before ) ) and after action ( Did ( a after ) ) of the candidate action act t D
- If users had the same goal (e.g. wanted to evacuate in Shinjuku), then they had same
action patterns ( SameTarget ( a t ,l t ) ).
- It is highly probable that user did the same actions if they were in the same location
( SameLocation ( l ) ).
Therefore, the similarity between user u j and user u a will be calculated as Equation 1.
S ( u j ,u a )= βDid (
{
a before ,l before }
,
{
a after ,l after }
)
+ γSameTarget ( a t ,l t )
+(1
(1)
β
γ ) SameLocation ( l )
Where:
- Parameters β,γ satisfy 0
β,γ,β + γ
1 . These parameters depend on each
particular problem.
- If u j did action act t in location l ,then Did ( act t ,l )=1 ,otherwise Did ( act t ,l )=
0 .
- If u j and user u a has the same goal (want to do action a t in target location l t ), then
SameTarget ( a t ,l t )=1 ,otherwise SameTarget ( a t ,l t )=0 .
- If u j and user u a were in the same location l at the time t ,then SameLocation ( l )=
1 ,otherwise SameLocation ( l )=0 .
4.2
Prediction Based on Probability of Action
In real-world, an action depends on location, time and its before-after actions. There-
fore, probability of act t at the time t can be calculated as Equation 2.
P ( act t )= ρ a {
F ( a before
act t )+ F ( act t
a after )
}
(2)
+ ρ t F ( act t ,t )+(1
ρ a
ρ t ) F ( act t ,l )
 
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