Agriculture Reference
In-Depth Information
Clothng (ATC) by January 2005; European Unon enlargement to nclude
Central and Eastern European countres (CEECs); and the mplementaton
of the AFTA among ASEAN member countries.
The economic effects of the EHP during 2004-06.
Under the EHP scenario,
all assumptons under the Baselne (I) scenaro are held except for the mport
tariffs on commodities listed in the EHP between China and ASEAN member
countries. According to the protocol of the EHP, the import tariffs were to
be elmnated n Chna and the orgnal ASEAN members before 1 January
2006. Therefore, in this simulation, tariffs between China and the old ASEAN
members are reduced to zero on the commodities listed in the EHP.
As for the new ASEAN members, there is a longer period for them to
reduce their tariffs on commodities listed in the EHP. As the tariffs on many
commodities were to be reduced to about 5 per cent by 2006 (Shang 2005),
we adopt the smple and reasonable assumpton that the mport tarffs
of commodities listed in the EHP for China's exports to the newer ASEAN
members were reduced to 5 per cent n 2006. The mport tarffs for the
newer ASEAN members' exports to Chna wll be elmnated.
The full implementation of the ACFTA by 2010.
Under the scenaro of
the full implementation of the ACFTA, all assumptions for Baseline (II)
are mantaned except for the mport tarffs between Chna and ASEAN.
According to the trade-in-goods agreement, participating countries will
elmnate substantally tarffs and non-tarff barrers for all products traded.
For ASEAN+6 and China, the schedule for the bulk of the goods subject to
tariff elimination is before 2010. Therefore, tariffs between China and old
ASEAN members wll be reduced to zero on all commodtes that are not
included in the EHP.
As for the newer ASEAN members, they have five additional years (until
2015) to remove all import tariff lines, including tariffs on commodities listed
in the EHP. Therefore, in this simulation, we assume newer ASEAN members
wll make no lberalsaton except for mplementng ther commtments n
the EHP, but their exports to China will face zero import tariffs.
Comparison of the simulation results with those for the first stage
of the EHP will help us understand the impacts of the second stage of
lberalsaton.
