Agriculture Reference
In-Depth Information
studes on the mpacts of WTO accesson on Chna's economy (Bhattasal
et al. 2004; Anderson et al. 2004; Ianchovichina and Martin 2004). We
adjust mport and export tarff equvalents of agrcultural commodtes n
the base year (2001) using results from the study by Huang et al. (2004).
Details of the adjustments are provided in Table A13.5.
Assumptons for the dfferent scenaros
The central goal of ths study s to assess the economc mpacts of the
ACFTA during its various stages of implementation. Towards this end, three
scenarios have been developed: I) the baseline scenario; II) the EHP policy
scenario in 2006; and III) the full implementation of the ACFTA by 2010.
The baseline scenarios.
In this study, we compare two trade liberalis-
ations over two different periods: the EHP during 2004-06 and the full
implementation of the ACFTA during 2006-10. We construct two baselines
(I and II) to evaluate the effects of polcy changes n the two perods.
Baseline (I) is constructed for the period 2001-06 to capture the effects of
the EHP; Baseline (II) incorporates the effects of the EHP during 2001-06
and projects to 2010 n order to solate the effects of the lberalsaton n
the second stage.
Both baselnes are constructed usng a recursve dynamc approach to
reflect the changes over time in the endowments of the countries. This
procedure has been used in several other studies (for example, Hertel and
Martin 1999; Tongeren and Huang 2004). The growth in endowments (GDP,
population, skilled and unskilled labour, capital and natural resources) is
taken mainly from other similar studies (Huang and Yang 2006; Tongeren
and Huang 2004; Walmsley et al. 2000).
The baselne projecton also ncludes a contnuaton of exstng polces
and the effectuaton of mportant polcy events related to nternatonal
trade, as they are known to date. The important policy changes are:
mplementaton of the remanng commtments from the General Agreement
on Tarffs and Trade (GATT) Uruguay Round agreements; Chna's WTO
accesson commtments between 2001 and 2010; the global phase-out
of the Multifibre Agreement under the WTO Agreement on Textiles and
