Agriculture Reference
In-Depth Information
Table 6.6
Macroeconomic effects of WTO tariff cuts: higher elasticities
Indcators
No control on trade balance
No change n trade balance
Eastern Central Western Natonal Eastern Central Western Natonal
Real GDP (%)
0.93 -0.12
0.29
0.57
0.91 -0.12
0.28
0.56
GDP deflator (%)
-1.88 -1.76
-2.47
-1.94
2.52
2.53 1.82
2.41
CPI (%)
Rural households
-2.37 -2.14
-2.70 -2.36
1.93
2.13
1.56
1.92
Urban households
-2.34 -2.05 -2.53 -2.31
1.97
2.25 1.77
2.00
Government
-0.84 -1.39
-1.39
-1.07
3.63
3.01 3.03
3.37
Regional average
-2.35 -2.10
-2.62 -2.34
1.95
2.18
1.66
1.96
Total utility (%)
Rural households
1.02
0.46
0.51
0.77
0.81
0.33 0.43
1.92
Urban households
1.65
0.93
1.16
1.41
1.15
0.50 0.87
2.00
Government
0.62 -1.80 -2.33 -0.24
1.41 -1.83 -2.37
3.37
Regional average
1.24
0.36
0.50
0.91
1.07
0.13
0.31
0.72
Equvalent varaton (bllon yuan)
Rural households
17.97
4.93
2.41 25.32
14.22
3.54 2.05 19.81
Urban households
34.42
6.34
8.35 49.11
23.94
3.37 6.23 33.54
Government
7.03 -6.36 -6.05 -5.39
16.02 -6.44 -6.15
3.43
Regional sum
59.42
4.92
4.71 69.04
54.18
0.47 2.13 56.79
Savings (nominal, %)
Rural households
-1.00 -1.58 -2.02
-1.29
3.32
2.69 2.22
3.01
Urban households
-0.30 -1.17
-1.12
-0.62
4.20
3.25 3.32
3.85
Government
-3.36 -3.20 -3.70
-3.36
0.89
1.09 0.57
0.90
Regional average
-0.94 -1.45
-1.33
-1.11
3.47
2.89 3.06
3.28
Nomnal exchange rate
-
4.56
Change in trade balance (billion yuan)
-36.74
-
Terms of trade (%)
-0.47
-0.48
Source: Author's CERD smulaton.
