Assessing global earthquake risks: the Global Earthquake Model (GEM) initiative - Seismic Risk Analysis and Management of Civil Infrastructure Systems - page 809

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Assessing global earthquake risks: the Global
Earthquake Model (GEM) initiative
H. CROWLEY, R. PINHO, M. PAGANI
and N. KELLER, GEM Foundation, Italy
DOI : 10.1533/9780857098986.5.815
Abstract : The Global Earthquake Model (GEM) initiative aims
to develop a global model of earthquake risk as an open source,
community-driven project. In order to begin this in a structured way, a
number of global components that cover the scientifi c modules of the
model have been defi ned, and requests for proposals have been released,
inviting international consortia to bid and lead these projects. The
consortia leading these global components defi ne standards and best
practice related to the methodologies used in seismic hazard and risk
assessment and in particular the collection and storage of data needed
therein. This chapter introduces these global components and describes
an open source software and risk assessment platform, OpenQuake, that
is being developed to provide access to and community interaction with
the proposed data and tools.
Key words : global, seismic hazard, seismic risk, vulnerability, exposure,
community, open source.
30.1 Introduction
Almost half a million people have died in the last decade due to earth-
quakes. Most of these casualties were in the developing world, where risk
is increasing due to rapid population growth, urbanisation and poor con-
struction practice. In particular, many of the world's megacities of 10 million
inhabitants and more, such as Delhi, Bogota, Jakarta and Lima, are situated
in highly seismic active areas, as clearly emphasised in Fig. 30.1. A signifi cant
proportion of the world's population is therefore at risk from earthquakes.
The recent earthquakes in Haiti, Chile, Japan and New Zealand have pain-
fully reminded the world of the destructive impact of seismic events and
the importance of reliable earthquake risk information. However, in many
earthquake-prone regions, no risk models exist, and even where models do
exist, they are often inaccessible due to their proprietary nature.
State-of-the-art information on earthquake risk covering all areas of the
world is a necessary fi rst step towards risk awareness and the undertaking
of mitigating action. Such information is therefore a critical puzzle-piece
for minimising loss of life, property damage, and social and economic
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