Other Scheduling Methods - Construction Project Scheduling and Control - page 327

c. The probability that the project will finish before day 60
d. The probability that the project will finish on day 62
e. The probability that the project will finish at least 6 days early
f. The probability that the project will finish no more than 4 days late
g. The completion date with at least a 95% confidence level
7. In a CPM network, the critical path has six activities. Their durations are tabulated
next.

Duration (Days)

Activity Optimistic ( To ) Most Likely ( Tm ) Pessimistic ( Tp )

B 2 3 5

D 4 8 13

F 5 6 8

K 3 3 3

N 7 10 15

S 3 5 8

Compute the following:
a. The probability that the project will finish by the end of day 36
b. The probability that the project will finish by the end of day 39
c. The probability that the project will finish before day 38
d. The probability that the project will finish on day 35
e. The probability that the project will finish at least 3 days early
f. The probability that the project will finish more than 4 days late
g. The completion date with at least a 90% confidence level

8. Draw the network for the following project. Perform the CPM calculations on
the basis of the most likely durations. Pick the longest three paths. Calculate the
expected duration and the standard deviation for each path. Considering all three
paths, what is the duration of the project with at least a 90% confidence level?

Duration (Days)

Activity IPA Optimistic ( To ) Most Likely ( Tm ) Pessimistic ( Tp )

A — 4 6 11

B — 3 4 6

C — 6 9 15

D A, B 3 4 11

E B 5 7 10

F D 4 5 8

G D, E 7 10 16

H C, F, G 6 8 10

I C, G 3 3 5

J H, I 2 2 2